2020-03-27 Canada COVID-19 Assessment by Consensas
Authored by David Janes, CTO/CDA
Very good news in Canada - growth is sub 20% and (see the chart) the increase in absolute numbers has been about the same for the last four days, suggesting … hinting … that we may be at a turning point. More data is needed as always. We had 4043 cases in total. Quebec is far outstripping the rest of the country in cases, with 1629 cases compared to Ontario’s next place 858.
The Rest of World (non-China) has ticked up slightly to 16% growth but that’s basically along the 15%-ish line we’ve seen for a long time.
More charts to come soon, I promise - my main objective is to get provincial stats in, particularly population normalized.
By Province Cases and Tests
Rest-of-World (RoW) Cases
Rest-of-world is “not China” but does include Canada.
“He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower
CNN: James Dyson designed a new ventilator in 10 days. He's making 15,000 for the pandemic fight
“Dyson said the company had designed and built an entirely new ventilator, called the "CoVent," since he received a call 10 days ago from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. "This new device can be manufactured quickly, efficiently and at volume," Dyson added, saying that the new ventilator has been designed to "address the specific needs" of coronavirus patients.”
Our Dataset, in Spreadsheet
Our Dataset, GitHub
Worldometer (for RoW numbers)
Reading / Watching
NNT on Medium: Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You
“We should learn from the Geithner episode that bailing out individuals based on their needs is not the same as bailing out corporations based on our need for them. … Saving an airline, therefore, should not equate to subsidizing their shareholders and highly compensated managers and promote additional moral hazard in society”
The Independent: Could Germany become Europe’s first country to flatten the curve?
“Experts have also suggested that Germany’s high levels of testing mean milder cases that go undetected elsewhere are showing up in data. …“This is probably why we started to see cases very early, as well as mild ones which in other circumstances might have been missed.””
“Dr. David N. Fisman, a University of Toronto epidemiologist who helped us build this model, suggests that for the next year we may have to tighten social distancing whenever I.C.U. capacity is stretched, and then loosen it when the situation improves. “This gives the economy and the population ‘breaks’ so that people can breathe and businesses can operate,””
Sorry for the denseness of the following paragraph, but it’s important:
Among these patients, the mean age was 79.5 years (SD, 8.1) and 601 (30.0%) were women. In this sample, 117 patients (30%) had ischemic heart disease, 126 (35.5%) had diabetes, 72 (20.3%) had active cancer, 87 (24.5%) had atrial fibrillation, 24 (6.8%) had dementia, and 34 (9.6%) had a history of stroke. The mean number of preexisting diseases was 2.7 (SD, 1.6). Overall, only 3 patients [of 335 - dpj] (0.8%) had no diseases, 89 (25.1%) had a single disease, 91 (25.6%) had 2 diseases, and 172 (48.5%) had 3 or more underlying diseases. The presence of these comorbidities might have increased the risk of mortality independent of COVID-19 infection.
We are aggregating, normalizing and structuring COVID-19 data for Canada.
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